KEYIR NEWS — While Ethiopia has reported progress in stabilizing inflation, narrowing the foreign exchange premium, and boosting exports, economists caution that these gains may not be sustainable without broader structural reforms.
According to economic experts, the recent surge in export revenues and the significant reduction in the gap between official and parallel market exchange rates are positive signs. However, they warn that without sustained productivity growth in key sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing, the country could face renewed shortages and inflationary pressures.
“Ethiopia’s economic recovery is encouraging, but it is still fragile. Structural bottlenecks remain, and unless reforms go deeper, the progress could easily be reversed,” one analyst told Keyir News.
Another expert noted that the government’s focus should shift toward strengthening supply chains, improving competitiveness, and expanding industrial output to complement monetary and fiscal measures already in place.
The economists also stressed the importance of maintaining discipline in fiscal policy and enhancing institutional capacity to manage tax collection, customs, and public spending effectively. Without this, they argue, the economy risks falling back into cycles of inflation, foreign exchange shortages, and high debt stress.
Overall, while Ethiopia’s reform drive is viewed positively, experts emphasize that only long-term structural changes will secure sustainable and inclusive growth.
📊 Key Economic Indicators for 2024/25 fiscal year, according to the statement from Ministry of Finance released on September 7, 2025.
- Inflation: Fell from 34.5% (2014 E.C.) to 13.9%
- Exports: $8.3 billion (119% increase from last year)
- FX Premium: Narrowed from 96% (2016 E.C.) to 14.4%
- Subsidy Spending: 180 billion birr on fuel, fertilizer, and medicines
- GDP Growth: Projected above 8.4%